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 US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World

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PostSubject: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:09 am

US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World

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WASHINGTON — New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a report by the U.S. intelligence community.

The 140-page report released Monday by the National Intelligence Council lays out dangers and opportunities for nations, economies, investors, political systems and leaders due to four “megatrends” that government intelligence analysts say are transforming the world.

Those major trends, according to the analysts, are:
— the end of U.S. global dominance;
— the rising power of individuals against states;
— a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments;
— a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages.

“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” Council Chairman Christopher Kojm writes in the report.

Leading the list of the “game-changers” — factors the report says will shape the impact of the megatrends — is the “crisis-prone” global economy, which is vulnerable to international shocks and to disparities among national economies moving at significantly different speeds.

The future is “malleable,” according to Kojm. “Our effort is to encourage decision-makers, whether in government or outside, to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding.”

‘Tectonic Shifts’

The report reflects the consensus judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, who consulted or contracted with academics, research institutes, political leaders and corporations in 14 countries and the European Union.

While technological advances, migrations, wars and other factors drove change in earlier periods, what sets the next quarter century apart is the way seven “tectonic shifts” are combining to drive change at an accelerating rate, said NIC Counselor Mathew Burrows, the report’s principle author. Those factors are: the growth of the middle class, wider access to new technologies, shifting economic power, aging populations, urbanization, growing demand for food and water, and U.S. energy independence

“It’s hard to wrap your mind around it, to tell you the truth; it’s just been happening at great velocity,” Burrows said in an interview with Bloomberg News discussing the 18-month research project.

‘Black Swans’

That velocity is a function of several mutually reinforcing dynamics, the report found. One is what the report calls a “definitive shift of economic power to the East and South” as the U.S., European and Japanese share of global income is projected to fall from 56 percent today to well under half by 2030.

The report envisions an international economy that remains prone to potential “black swans” such as the collapse of the euro and the European Union, a pandemic, a Chinese economic collapse, a nuclear war or a debilitating cyberattack.

Even absent such events, it says: “A return to pre-2008 growth rates and previous patterns of rapid globalization looks increasingly unlikely, at least for the next decade,” in part because total non-financial debt across G-7 countries has doubled since 1980 to 300 percent of GDP.

Population Growth

The key question, the report says, is whether divergent growth rates and increased volatility “will result in a global economic breakdown or whether the development of multiple growth centers will lead to resiliency.”

A world population that’s projected to rise to 8.3 billion from 7.1 billion today by 2030 will add to the strains, the report says. More people will join the middle class, especially in the developing world, and even conservative estimates forecast the global middle class doubling to more than 2 billion in 18 years.

Much of this growing middle class will flock to cities, increasing the world’s urban population from roughly 50 percent of the world’s total to nearly 60 percent by 2030. Rising incomes will fuel their appetite for food — especially protein from meat and fish — water and energy, which will be in shorter supply, the report says, in part because climate change and water shortages will alter patterns of arable land and greater demand for energy could curb the amount of fuel available to make fertilizers and other products.

Demand for food will rise 35 percent by 2030 as global gains in agricultural productivity decline, the report says. Worldwide water requirements will reach 6,900 billion cubic meters in 2030, 40 percent more than current sustainable water supplies, making water a likely cause of regional conflicts, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East, the report says.

Climate Change

Climate change will complicate resource management, particularly in Asia, where monsoons are crucial to the growing season and decreased rainfall could disrupt the region’s ability to feed its growing population.

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are happening faster than expected, Burrows said. When his researchers updated their section on climate change, the new figures showed the rate of change was even greater than it was 18 months before, when they started the project.

New communications technologies and expanding educational opportunities, meanwhile, will empower the growing middle classes to make greater demands on their governments for services, a scenario that’s already part of the Arab Spring movements in countries such as Egypt.

‘Bad Scenario’

“You have a huge problem on the resource side,” Burrows said. “How do you manage all this prosperity that is putting a lot of strain on the resources?”

The solution to resource shortages will have to be public and private sector cooperation, Burrows said. “You have to have collaboration on the technology, you have to have a big energy or water project the world is really geared up for, because otherwise it turns into a bad scenario,” he said.

At the same time, though, communications technology is shifting political power from nations “toward multifaceted and amorphous networks that will form to influence state and global actions,” the report says.

“Those nations with some of the strongest fundamentals — GDP, population size, etc. — will not be able to punch their weight unless they learn to operate in networks and coalitions in a multipolar world,” according to the report

The same technologies will also allow groups to to attack electrical grids or computer networks, Burrows said. While enormous caches of data eventually will enable governments to “figure out and predict what people are going to be doing” and “get more control over society,” he said, for now “the scales tip more in favor of the individual than the state.”

Asia Rising

At the same time, power will shift from North America and Europe to an Asia with GDP, population, military spending and technological investment that will surpass the West’s, the report projects.

China will surpass the U.S. economically a few years before 2030, and regional players such as Colombia, India, Nigeria and Turkey will become increasingly important to the global economy.

The U.S. role in this new world order is hard to predict because the degree to which it continues to dominate the international system could vary widely, the report says.

“The ’unipolar’ moment is over and Pax Americana — the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 — is fast winding down,” the report says.

Despite that, the U.S. most likely will remain “first among equals” in 2030, the report says.

The U.S. will remain the only power “that can really orchestrate these coalitions, including non-state actors and state actors, to really manage, deal with these huge challenges and changes” the world faces, Burrows said.

While the report envisions the end of a unipolar world, and “the U.S. can’t dictate,” Burrows said, “you can’t see any other power out there that can organize it.”

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:21 pm

The Four Horseman by Gary R. Ferris
Up rode the white horse,

From somewhere far below;

Prideful, full of power,

And charming as a doe.
*****
The rider was awesome,

Wearing many crowns;

His eyes were like fire,

As he struck many down.
*****
The people and the nations,

He would rule all;

He captured the money,

From all large and small.
*****
Our head or our right hand,

He would place his mark;

Whoever resisted,

Had to hide in the dark.
*****

His army was proud and strong,

And slaughtered at night;

The people were deceived,

And lived everyday in fright.
*****
Then down rode a red horse,

Like he had been there before;

To guide and protect us,

And keep us from war.
*****
This rider seemed amazing,

With a sword to persuade,

He caused nations to break treaties,

Their forefathers had made.
*****
He craftily set up circumstances,

That left the world in dark;

Forcing nation against nation,

With just a little spark.
*****


Once he rode to guide us,

And keep us from all harm;

Now he rides to compromise,

Peace and all its charm.
*****
A son will fight his father,

And the blood will vastly flow;

There will be no way to earn back,

The peace they used to know.
*****
Just as war was certain,

The black horse was on the way;

And with him came fear,

That goods would vanish away.
*****
The rider was quite a wonder,

With a sword of quick surprise;

Goods that last forever,

Now vanish before mere eyes.
*****


Now the fields are filled with pests,

And the fruit belongs to worms;

Oil and wine are turned to mud,

And the water is filled with germs.
*****
For jobs that filled the cities,

Now they have gone;

The people have no bread to eat,

When the nighttime turns to dawn.
*****
Where is wheat and barley,

Or money there to buy;

People began to hunger,

And watch their children die.
*****
A pale horse rode down quickly,

As life grew very dim;

With him came destruction,

From the three horse prior to him.
*****


The beast grew very hungry,

And turned to devour man;

And what they could not destroy,

Sickness and disease can.
*****
Fire and locust covered all,

And smoke filled the sky;

For where four men gathered,

One of them would die.
*****
Destruction and war was everywhere,

There was no place to hide;

Children died from hunger,

While mothers wept and cried.
*****
Confusion and fear filled the land,

With all that hell could bring;

They fled in shame to hide their face,

But none was there to sing.
*****


The horsemen have to come,

They soon will have to go;

So here’s a little secret,

That everyone should know.
*****
For those who saw the horsemen,

And never had to sigh;

Rode out with the true white horse,

To their home up in the sky.
*****
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:26 pm

Right place, right time!!! TWIT!!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:51 pm

I just cant put any credence in anything the "intelligence" agencies have to say.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sun Dec 16, 2012 6:46 am

Appears it is more accurate to say the "Lack of Intelligence" Agency!! TWIT!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:52 pm

I'm sure many are truly intelligent, but there are some who are following the wrong leadership blindly or for ill gotten gains.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:14 pm

Me thinks most are for ill gotten gains!! JMHO!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:28 pm

Now they need to get their just desserts. Ten fold!!!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:57 pm

They are going to get many things and I do not believe they will want or keep any of them!!! JMHO!!

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There are only two defining forces that have ever offered to die for you!
Jesus Christ for your soul and the American Soldier for your freedom!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:59 pm

Well that is too darn bad IMO. They should have thought it out before they started on their corrupted path.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:40 am

Continues to remind me of the rapid growth of government to give away more and more for someone doing less and less. Creating agencies to seek out ways to spend the bounty that government takes from us. Hard to believe they can continue to give it away faster than they can figure out ways to bring more in and still get reelected to spend more!!! What a mess!!! TWIT!!

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EXPERIENCE IS WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU DON'T GET WHAT YOU WANTED!

There are only two defining forces that have ever offered to die for you!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:51 am

The more enployed by this corrupt government only means more votes for them. A smart plan to keep their jobs for well into the future.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:10 am

At least until they have spent all the money they can get their grubby hands on!!! Damn!!!

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There are only two defining forces that have ever offered to die for you!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:53 am

Then what happens. Killing the innocent ones?
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:04 am

Then is what is referred to as SHTF!!! They will turn on each other and then attempt to take whatever they can get their hands on!! We have to be prepared for that to come as it is just a matter of time before it does!!! TWIT!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:14 pm

Yes and our government leaders want us disarmed before it comes to that. If they get their way, we will have to fend off the intruders by tossing frozen potatoes at them.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:56 pm

I have a potato gun that is made of 4' PVC!!! has electronic ignition from a BBQ grill burner igniter. Pound potato in the end, unscrew the cap down at the other end of the barrel and spray in a 2 to 3 second blast of cheap hair spray!!! Then press igniter and holy mackrel, it shoots a large baker potato in the range of 200 to 300 yards!!! I would not want to be hit by a flying potato from the thing!!! LMAO!!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:57 am

I dont think I would either. GGG
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:03 pm

I will be armed! Even if it is with a potato gun!!! LMAO!!

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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:42 am

That's the ticket...stand your ground.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:50 am

I expect it will be with more than a potato gun!!! LMAO!! Might be a tomato gun!!! GGG!!

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EXPERIENCE IS WHAT YOU GET WHEN YOU DON'T GET WHAT YOU WANTED!

There are only two defining forces that have ever offered to die for you!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:45 pm

I'm thinking that frozen watermelons would be much more appealing to me. GGG
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sat Jan 19, 2013 7:54 pm

I can assure you there will be more than either!! They will absolutely not like it!!! Trust me!!!

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There are only two defining forces that have ever offered to die for you!
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:56 am

Let them reap what they sow.
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PostSubject: Re: US Intelligence Agencies Predict a Transformed World   Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:47 am

If you do not sow anything you would get nothing!!! JMHO!!!

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